Superforecasting

Superforcasters opens by comparing the state of forecasting in our current society to that of medicine in the premodern world. Practitioners of forecasting today are not judged on their performance or accuracy, but on the strength of the hindsight aided narrative they can put together. Telling a compelling story that plausibly explains how your specific prediction may have been wrong but your narrative is still generally correct is what kept medicine examining humors and bloodletting for centuries. The message is clear: Look for your failures. Seek out ways to improve your performance. Get prompt feedback. Don't ever get complacent. The state of “perpetual beta” is key, according to the authors, to achieving maximum performance in any field. A notion that we apply to the training of doctors and professional athletes, but not the people whose prognostications drive the behavior of everyone from corporate giants to you and me. We should test those who claim to have insight into complex systems, and look at a forecaster's past record before blindly accepting their story