Superforecasting
Superforecasting
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“Guidelines is the best we can do in the world where nothing is certain or exactly repeatable”, this quote from the end of the book describes exactly what you will get after reading this book.
You won't be given a “master key to know and forecast every event and outcome”, but what you will get is a comprehensive analysis of the tools used by the forecasters. The book is a good read for a general audience, however if you are unfamiliar with concepts and events used and referenced throughout it, you may have a more challenging reading experience.