The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

The Black Swan is a book about prediction. It describes our many challenges and failings making predictions. It's probability and economics heavy, with examples often focusing on socioeconomic factors.

Surprisingly to me, the 2009 financial crash and global COVID-19 pandemic are NOT categorized as black swans—they're gray swans—as the occurrence of them was very predictable (just not the exact timing, scale, or specifics). Black Swans are unknown unknowns; unforeseen positive or negative events that create huge effects, that typically sit outside of the expectations of common predictions (as there was no reasonable way to predict them).

There were so many highlights for me it's hard to pick any key bits out, the entire book was fantastic, even the big essay at the end of the second edition of the book that I read.

Taleb is fantastic at explaining his theories, using multiple examples to illustrate each one. I felt like this rounded out my understanding of each of the theories. Fair warning: he can be quite egotistical and rude at times.

I love any books that illustrate different world-views, and The Black Swan was fantastic for that, hence 5 stars. I highlighted a lot, and expect to re-read after reading his other books.

P.S. As a software engineer, I also found the book very applicable to estimating complex software projects.

The message that Taleb is driving home, is clear and understood: Gaussian bell curves need to be deleted from public memory - Black Swan events, that are highly improbable, yet enormously impactful don't follow projections using standard deviations. While this in itself is definitely news to me, the book is windy, lengthy, and sometimes “hautain” (haughty, in reference to Taleb's beloved French). Glad I read it but I didn't always fully enjoy it.

I don't know enough about statistics or science to understand most of this book, but it didn't really matter; I loved how Taleb turns statistics on its head and watches how it tries to keep standing. From this book away these big thoughts: You think they won't, but black swans will happen. No one will expect them. Their impact will be astonishing. Go for the good black swans, however unlikely; stay away from the bad black swans, no matter what.

definitely a lot of great empirical arguments. definitely changes how i size up probabilities and decisions. author has a background as a ‘quant', and the brightest parts of this book is when he relates his field of expertise to the more abstract area of uncertainty, dunking on gaussian social scientists. however, i utterly disagree with his more metaphysical conclusions, such as history being nothing other than an entertainment due to difficulty of ascertaining the past (correct, it is absolutely chaotic, but do you not think the STORY OF HUMANITY UP TO THIS POINT might not have something to say?).

also he's a dick

Abandoned at 50%. The author is a tad too arrogant for my liking and his constant referring to people as “he” tipped me over the edge. I tried to push through but the content wasn't really hooking me either.

E.g. in a scenario where you're asked to imagine buying a new car - “People will think, Hey, he has a great car”. No they wont!!

Or “the ultimate test of whether you like an author is if you've reread him” - what about the women??

He also liked to diss people in certain professions “we humans have the largest cortex, followed by bank executives, dolphins, and our cousins the apes” which I get he's trying to be funny but it's really not.

Another notable “yikes” moment was when he said that attending social events is worth it for the networking and the ideas you'll get, but “if you are autistic, send one of your associates to these events” (I guess people with autism can't network?)

It has taken me quite some time to sit down to write this review. I wanted to make sure my initial impression of The Black Swan was the impression I am willing to commit to writing.

First (and most importantly), I enjoyed the book's premise. I work in disaster preparedness and I enjoy reading about various ways to view improbable events. I spend a fair amount of time in my professional life comparing probability and severity and further thinking about how to communicate those thoughts to clients who may or may not regularly think about potential emergencies in such a way. Taleb's assertion that we are at least as threatened by what we don't know as we are by those threats of which we are aware is one of those points that should be repeated in disaster planning meetings again and again. Second, I believe the author to have done an admirable job of balancing highly technical mathematical ideas and accessibility for the reader.

Several reviewers from a variety of other websites criticized Taleb for including anecdotes about such characters as Yevgenia Krasnova (given the character's status as fictional). I will admit I initially found these inclusions jarring, but once I acknowledged it as a stylistic way for the author to present his material, I took no issue with their inclusion. Fictional examples do not dilute the believability of the data-based material Taleb presents. Several points made by the text highlight the often subtle nature of recognizing black swans. The black swan could be a product of incremental changes over long periods of time. The use of extreme fictional examples, then, are pithy ways to convey complex ideas over the course of a few pages.

The primary objection I have with this book is the almost snarky tone with which it is written. I can appreciate injections of humor, but to read quibs on seemingly every other page toward most academic fields was a bit much. I can appreciate disdain for certain subjects and I see no reason why an author should steer clear of acknowledging them. Any comedian, though, will tell you that over-using the same joke spoils its humor.

I am not in a position to recommend this book to anyone. I am glad I read it and I certainly wouldn't discourage anyone else from reading it. However, one should be aware of what she/he is getting into before starting it.

This book was very meandering and there was a lot of focus on the author's personal experiences that I don't know if they helped. Also, the author is super condescending to all other people, he thinks he is the lone visionary that can see the world as it is. Maybe it's true, who knows.

I give this some stars because it was very interesting to think about different kinds of events and how we don't have the capacity to reason about the impact or chances of rare but catastrophic things happening.