The Skeptics' Guide to the Future
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Pre-order now: the new book from the bestselling authors and hosts of the wildy popular 'The Skeptics Guide to the Universe' __________ Our predictions of the future are a wild fantasy, inextricably linked to our present hopes and fears, biases and ignorance. Whether they be the outlandish leaps predicted in the 1920s, like multi-purpose utility belts with climate control capabilities and planes the size of luxury cruise ships, or the forecasts of the '60s, which didn't anticipate the sexual revolution or women's liberation, the path to the present is littered with failed predictions and incorrect estimations. The best we can do is try to absorb from futurism's checkered past, perhaps learning to do a little better. In The Skeptics' Guide To The Future, Steven Novella and his co-authors build upon the work of futurists of the past by examining what they got right, what they got wrong, and how they came to those conclusions. By exploring the pitfalls of each era, they give their own speculations about the distant future, transformed by unbelievable technology ranging from genetic manipulation to artificial intelligence and quantum computing. Applying their trademark skepticism, they carefully extrapolate upon each scientific development, leaving no stone unturned as they lay out a vision for the future of tomorrow. __________
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The word skeptic has gotten a bad rep, and one could easily deduct from the book title that the authors will nitpick current and previous visions of the future to exhaustion. Rest assured: the Novella brothers are excellent critical thinkers and big nerds of science fiction and space fantasy. The exploration of the near and distant future is in safe hands!
The book first lays down the pitfalls of futurism (calling them futurism fallacies) and frequently refers to them throughout the chapters. The fallacies help the authors be honest, managing the reader's expectations.
Part two of the book goes through today's technology and how that is already shaping and will continue to shape the future. The book navigates such existing technologies and makes a compelling argument that even incremental advances soon add up to create a profound effect on us.
The following parts of the book increasingly distance the reader from the current reality, going from non-existing but very probable future technologies to pure tech fantasies and technobabble. The authors give a good perspective on why some tech from sci-fi movies and books is beyond the realm of possibilities.
I thoroughly enjoyed the book and was reminded that predicting the future is not just about technological advances. Science, exploration, and incremental technological advances significantly alter the course of history. Yet, do we understand how they change how we think and what decisions we make? Would we have the same governing structures if every resource imaginable was abundant? Would it seem reckless or unnatural to have designer babies a century from now? There are a lot of similar questions that the book explores and that I keep raising in my head.
One criticism I have for the book is that it feels too dry and overly factual at times. If you're not in a focus mode while reading/listening to the book, some topics, such as rocket propulsion will fly over your head!